Hopefully everyone had a decent weekend, whether it was a weekend “break” for you or not. We mentioned in Friday’s journal entry that today’s market action would be very important in giving us some clues as to where we might be headed from here. A day of mild to sharp declines, however, would have been much more decisive. That is not what we saw today, however. Instead we saw some of the largest across-the-board gains that we have seen in a couple of weeks. So what is this likely telling us? That we will almost certainly see another test of the all-time highs in the very near future, possibly even this week. But it has already reached and tested those highs unsuccessfully three times this month prior to this. Will it fail again? Or will it finally break on through and head for the next plateau? Now that question we cannot yet answer with any great deal of confidence, though we lean towards another fail. Let’s take a look at today’s daily chart for the S&P500 index.
As you can see in the chart above it was all about the large morning “gap up” the had built up over the weekend. After that it was mostly just smooth, low volatility, sideways sailing till the finish line at the closing bell. We only made two trades today because we also had a 2-weeks long, long-term binary option contract on the EUR/USD currency pair for $500 which was expiring today. The outcome of that trade would have a big enough impact for one day, either way it went. Let’s see how it did go, shall we?
The screenshot above shows our GOptions “Expired Positions” tab for long-term option contracts. This tab also has a nice little feature called an “expiry chart” which shows a snapshot of the trade in the moments just surrounding expiry. It is a nice thing to have when very close trades occur, which is fairly frequently with binary options. Anyway, as you can see this was definitely not the case this time around. Earlier this month when the EUR/USD pair was trading a bit over the 1.39 level we had called for it to soon decline to the 1.37 level, and we put our money where our mouth was on this one, placing a $500 investment on it. As you can see, this was certainly one of our better calls recently, pretty much exactly nailing both the timing and the magnitude. That’s as rare as Sasquatch sightings in financial markets. So, we won this one by a “country mile.”
Long-Term S&P500 Index Trade Summary
Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Date / Expiry Date: 17.03.14 / 31.03.14
Returns Offered: 77%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1.39237 / 1.37717
Returns Received: $885.00
Profit/Loss: +$385.00 Profit
Nice. We’ll happily take that outcome. Believe it or not we are actually pretty big fans of longer-term binary options trades. We know that the shorter the better is the current trend, but from a confidence level perspective, it is always easier to predict longer time frames, and we like high-confidence trades. The flip side is, of course, that each trade will be for much larger amounts as a general rule, making each individual trade more stressful and important.
Both our trades made today were executed only a matter of a couple of minutes apart, with both being technical plays on short-run declines from recent highs. They were also both fairly close calls, and did not develop in the way we had hoped they would. However, in the end things turned out alright.
S&P500 Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option
Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry: 16:53 / 17:30
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1873.510 / 1873.340
Returns Received: $176.00
Profit/Loss: +$76.00 Profit
Corn Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option
Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry: 16:55 / 17:30
Returns Offered: 72%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 499.8750 / 498.8750
Returns Received: $172.00
Profit/Loss: +$72.00 Profit
Well, obviously today was quite the good day. Between our long-term trade, and the two short-term high/low trades opened today we went 3-for-3 with $700 total invested. And this being the last trading day of March, this will also make a pretty big difference in our monthly total numbers, which we should get published by next weekend. Let’s look at today’s totals below though.
Daily Investment Totals For 3/31/2014
Total Trades Closed: Two (2) Standard High/Low + One (1) Long-Term
Trading Outcomes: Three (3) ITM
Total Investments: $700.00
Total Returns Received: $1,233.00
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$533.00 Daily Profit
Daily ROI: +76.14% Daily ROI
Not bad for less than 30 minutes “work” I’d say. And even better than what it means for today is the effect it will have on our monthly numbers. The previous two weeks have been pretty “blah” with no losses, but no real gains either. So today’s $533 profit makes all the difference there. Our best day in a little while. Of course if that long-term trade had gone the other way…it would have been our worse day in quite a while. No risk, no reward. Good luck and stay safe out there folks!