It was good to get back into things at least a little bit today, after having to take the last two days off from trading thanks to a lovely stomach bug. Fun stuff! But we’re back and seemingly healthy, and definitely ready to make some trading profits. Of course, for that we’ll need cooperative markets (which for us at the moment means trending down). And for now at least they appear to be ready to cooperate with our macro views (short to medium-term bearish). The 5-day trend now has been steadily and consistently down, though by modest amounts each session. All-in-all the US S&P500 index is down about 30 points off the highs of a couple of weeks ago, and we’re prepared for further, and possibly even steeper declines. Tomorrow will be a critical day to watch for clues as we head into the weekend.
As for our own trading today, it was a short day with only two standard high/low trades being made in total. Both of which were executed earlier in the day prior to the afternoon sideways movement, which we wanted no part of. Both trades were very short-term, entirely technical in nature (i.e. simple charting technical analysis), and with both finishing ITM by a hair at expiry. We could just as easily have ended up going 0 for 2, instead of 2 for 2. But luck was on our side today (we’ll take it) and things turned out alright. Let’s take a look, shall we?
EUR/USD Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option
Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry: 14:56 / 15:10
Returns Offered: 80%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1.37626 / 1.37670
Returns Received: $180.00
Profit/Loss: +$80.00 Profit
The screenshot seen above was taken immediately after we entered the trade, and shows quite clearly the “bottom bounce” play we were going for here. However, those “bottoms” were really only the lows of the last hour or so, and prior to that price had been below these levels several times, making for a lower-probability trade than we would have liked, but one still worth taking. And, because these were only short-term lows, and we were only expecting a short-lived bounce off the bottom, we also purchased this contract with the very small expiry window of just 15 minutes. And as you can see in our summary above, it was a pretty close call indeed.
S&P500 Index Trade – High/Low Put Option
Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry: 17:39 / 18:00
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1847.61 / 1847.58
Returns Received: $176.00
Profit/Loss: +$76.00 Profit
Our next trade did not come for nearly another three hours, and even when it did come it was a borderline play with no strong indicators for success. So why did we even enter the trade then? Partly just because there wasn’t anything better catching our eye and we wanted to get in at least another trade or two for this journal entry, and partly because we still felt pretty good about the trade, even without strong technical support for our theory. But in the end, it really just came down to luck of the draw, and it could have easily gone the other way. Just in case you didn’t notice it in the summary above, this trade finished a measly 3 “pips” (or ticks) ITM! And as you can see in the expiry chart for the trade below, on the very next price tick it was OTM by 3 pips! In other words we finished ITM by a matter of milliseconds. Whew!
Well, the daily totals summary won’t be much trouble today with only two trade made. As you already know, both were standard high/low binary options, both were made for our usual $100 investment, and both finished ITM by a small margin by expiry. So that actually makes for a fairly decent day for how little time and effort we put into it. We’re only talking $150 roughly, but for 30 minutes or so work that’s perfectly acceptable. And more important than your absolute dollar gains/losses is your Return On Investment (ROI), which was certainly good today. It is tomorrow that will determine our week overall though, so we look forward to that.
Daily Investment Totals For 3/24/2014
Total Trades Entered: Two (2) High/Low
Daily Trading Outcomes: Two (2) ITM
Total Investments: $200.00
Total Returns Received: $356.00
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$156.00 Daily Profit
Daily ROI: +78.0% Daily ROI
We’ll take that. Tomorrow’s performance will be crucial though for making sure that we beat last week’s sad performance (less than $50 profit for the whole week…better than a loss but still not good). See you tomorrow all. And remember to trade smart, and be lucky folks!