The BOT Boss Trading Journal Entry For 3-31-2014

Hopefully everyone had a decent weekend, whether it was a weekend “break” for you or not. We mentioned in Friday’s journal entry that today’s market action would be very important in giving us some clues as to where we might be headed from here. A day of mild to sharp declines, however, would have been much more decisive. That is not what we saw today, however. Instead we saw some of the largest across-the-board gains that we have seen in a couple of weeks. So what is this likely telling us? That we will almost certainly see another test of the all-time highs in the very near future, possibly even this week. But it has already reached and tested those highs unsuccessfully three times this month prior to this. Will it fail again? Or will it finally break on through and head for the next plateau? Now that question we cannot yet answer with any great deal of confidence, though we lean towards another fail. Let’s take a look at today’s daily chart for the S&P500 index.

daily chart of s&p500 index for 3-31-2014

As you can see in the chart above it was all about the large morning “gap up” the had built up over the weekend. After that it was mostly just smooth, low volatility, sideways sailing till the finish line at the closing bell. We only made two trades today because we also had a 2-weeks long, long-term binary option contract on the EUR/USD currency pair for $500 which was expiring today. The outcome of that trade would have a big enough impact for one day, either way it went. Let’s see how it did go, shall we?

long-term s&p500 index trade outcome 3-31-2014

The screenshot above shows our GOptions “Expired Positions” tab for long-term option contracts. This tab also has a nice little feature called an “expiry chart” which shows a snapshot of the trade in the moments just surrounding expiry. It is a nice thing to have when very close trades occur, which is fairly frequently with binary options. Anyway, as you can see this was definitely not the case this time around. Earlier this month when the EUR/USD pair was trading a bit over the 1.39 level we had called for it to soon decline to the 1.37 level, and we put our money where our mouth was on this one, placing a $500 investment on it. As you can see, this was certainly one of our better calls recently, pretty much exactly nailing both the timing and the magnitude. That’s as rare as Sasquatch sightings in financial markets. So, we won this one by a “country mile.”

Long-Term S&P500 Index Trade Summary

Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Date / Expiry Date:
 17.03.14 / 31.03.14
Investment: $500.00
Returns Offered: 77%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1.39237 / 1.37717
Returns Received: $885.00
Profit/Loss: +$385.00 Profit

Nice. We’ll happily take that outcome. Believe it or not we are actually pretty big fans of longer-term binary options trades. We know that the shorter the better is the current trend, but from a confidence level perspective, it is always easier to predict longer time frames, and we like high-confidence trades. The flip side is, of course, that each trade will be for much larger amounts as a general rule, making each individual trade more stressful and important.

s&p500 index trade opening chart for 3-31-2014

Both our trades made today were executed only a matter of a couple of minutes apart, with both being technical plays on short-run declines from recent highs. They were also both fairly close calls, and did not develop in the way we had hoped they would. However, in the end things turned out alright.

S&P500 Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option

Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry:
 16:53 / 17:30
Investment: $100.00
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1873.510 / 1873.340
Returns Received: $176.00
Profit/Loss: +$76.00 Profit

corn trade opening chart for 3-31-2014

Corn Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option

Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry:
 16:55 / 17:30
Investment: $100.00
Returns Offered: 72%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 499.8750 / 498.8750
Returns Received: $172.00
Profit/Loss: +$72.00 Profit

Well, obviously today was quite the good day. Between our long-term trade, and the two short-term high/low trades opened today we went 3-for-3 with $700 total invested. And this being the last trading day of March, this will also make a pretty big difference in our monthly total numbers, which we should get published by next weekend. Let’s look at today’s totals below though.

daily investments history totals 3-31-2014

Daily Investment Totals For 3/31/2014

Total Trades Closed: Two (2) Standard High/Low + One (1) Long-Term
Trading Outcomes:
 Three (3) ITM
Total Investments: $700.00
Total Returns Received: $1,233.00
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$533.00 Daily Profit
Daily ROI: +76.14% Daily ROI

Not bad for less than 30 minutes “work” I’d say. And even better than what it means for today is the effect it will have on our monthly numbers. The previous two weeks have been pretty “blah” with no losses, but no real gains either. So today’s $533 profit makes all the difference there. Our best day in a little while. Of course if that long-term trade had gone the other way…it would have been our worse day in quite a while. No risk, no reward. Good luck and stay safe out there folks!

Weekly Trading Roundup For Last Week Of March

It was a week of somewhat stormy seas for most of the major US indices, with mild losses being the end result all around. But much more importantly than what was gained or lost this week is what this action can potentially tell us about what may be coming. And luckily for those of us with a current bearish bent, the technical picture was not affected by Friday’s small gains, and markets remain in corrective mode for the time being. Monday’s action should provide more clues about where we’re going from here, but there are certainly no guarantees, and we’ve been disappointed before recently. Our favorite market proxy, the S&P500 index ended up shedding about 10 points all told. That’s only about a -0.54% loss for the week in total.

weekly s&p500 index chart for last week march 2014

As for our own trading account balance, well, it performed quite a bit better than markets themselves did. However, our absolute dollar gains were actually not very high. Party because we missed two full days of trading, and partly because we made less trades than usual even on the days we did trade. On a percentage basis, however, we did acceptably well this week. And certainly any profit is better than a loss. Due to a very unpleasant stomach bug we had to deal with we missed out on trading for both Tuesday and Wednesday this week, so this week’s summary will be shorter than usual. Let’s get started.

Binary Options Trading For 3/24 – 3/28

daily investments history standard high/low for 3-24-2014

Monday, March 24th Trades Summary

High/Low Trades Made: Five (5) Standard High/Low Contracts
High/Low Trade Outcomes: Three (3) ITM + Two (2) OTM
High/Low Trade Investments: $500.00
High/Low Returns Received: $527.00
Total Net Profit/Loss: +$27.00 High/Low Profits

daily ladder option investments history 3-24-2014

Daily Ladder Option Trades: Three (3) * $25 Ladder Options
Ladder Option Trade Outcomes: Three (3) ITM
Total Ladder Investments: $75
Total Ladder Returns: $114.27
Daily Ladder Profit/Loss: +$39.27

Total Daily Profit/Loss: $27.00 + $39.27 = $66.27
Total Daily ROI: +11.53%
Monday – 3/24 Journal Entry

Tuesday, March 25th Trades Summary

There were no trades made for Tuesday, March the 25th.

Wednesday, March 26th Trades Summary

There were no trades made for Wednesday, March the 26th.

Thursday, March 27th Trades Summary

daily investment history totals 3-27-2014 These next trades did not come until three days later, on Thursday the 27th. As you can see we only made two standard high/low trades this day. But both turned out well and markets were moving sideways at the time, so we called it a day and just quit while we were ahead. We also did not make any of the GOptions ladder options trades today, or any other contract variety aside from the two high/low contracts.

High/Low Trades Entered: Two (2) High/Low
Standard Trade Outcomes:
 Two (2) ITM
Total Investments: $200.00
Total Returns Received: $356.00
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$156.00 Daily Profit
Total Net Daily ROI: +78.0% Daily ROI
Thursday – 3/27 Journal Entry

Friday, March 28th Trades Summary

daily investments history totals for 3-28-2014

High/Low Trades Entered: Three (3) High/Low
Standard Trade Outcomes:
 Two (2) ITM + One (1) OTM
Total Investments: $324.52
Total Returns Received: $395.16
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$70.64 Daily Profit
Total Net Daily ROI: +21.77% Daily ROI
Friday – 3/28 Journal Entry

weekly djia index chart for last week of march

Weekly Roundup For Last Week Of March

Total Trades Made: Ten (10) Standard High/Low + Three (3) Ladder Option
High/Low Trade Outcomes:
 Seven (7) ITM + Three (3) OTM
Ladder Option Outcomes: Three (3) ITM
Total Weekly Investments: $1,099.52 (our lowest volume week in months)
Weekly Returns Received: $1,392.43
Net Weekly Profit/Loss: $292.91
Total Net Weekly ROI: + 26.64% Weekly ROI

That’s actually a pretty darn good finish for such a low volume trading week. However, when looked at from the point of view of: (hours put in / total earnings) = Hourly Profit, then we didn’t do all that well this week. We probably put in about 6-7 hours of “work” between analysis and actual trading this week, so that would work out to what, about $45/hr or somewhere close to that. Not exactly fast food worker wages or anything, but still well below what we aim for on average ($100/hr. minimum).

We still have one “trading day” left this month (Monday the 31st) before we can put together the monthly roundup for March, unfortunately, so we’ll have to wait on those totals. Until then, trade smart and get lucky folks!

Trading Journal Entry For Friday 3-28-2014

We experienced a bit of a change of gears today, with markets gapping up mildly at the open, and basically never looking back all day. However, with that said it doesn’t appear to have changed the overall technical picture, and certainly we’ve had no fundamental, macro level changes of any significance. As we head into the weekend our position would be that traders should remain cautious, and that we are still in correction mode, despite today’s modest gains. We would not want to be overly exposed long heading into this weekend, that’s for sure. The S&P500 index, like other major US indices today, rose sharply in the early morning hours, then slowly but steadily bled off some of those gains throughout the day, before finally getting a bit of a boost in the last hour of trading.

daily s&p500 index chart for 3-28-2014

It was a day of mild gains for our trading account as well as the broader market indices, and that kept us in profitable territory for the week overall. Though not by as much as we would have liked. For our trading today we stuck strictly with the standard high/low binary option contracts, making three trades in total for the day. Ladder options have been mostly closed the last two days due to a combination of extreme volatility in those assets, and very low trading volume (no liquidity). But our first trade of the day — on the good ol’ S&P500 — was actually the last trade to expire for the day, right at the closing bell in fact. So first we’ll take a look at the next two trades, which were purchased with short expiry windows of less than an hour.

gold high/low put option trade for 3-28-2014

About an hour and a half after entering our first trade of the day — using a longer-term contract with a 3 1/2 hour expiry window — we got into our next two trades barely 30 seconds apart. The first of them though was on everyone’s favorite shiny metal, Gold. Though I’m sure it isn’t looking nearly as shiny to gold bugs as it was last year. Well, it didn’t treat us all that well today either. Price looked like it might be moving back into a downward trend here (the chart image above was taken at the time of purchase), but instead was merely correcting a bit as it had the hour before, and soon was on its way back up.

Gold Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option

Trade Outcome: OTM
Entry Time / Expiry:
 18:00:08 / 18:30
Investment: $100.00
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1292.92 / 1293.95
Returns Received: $0.00
Profit/Loss: -$100.00 Loss

high/low oil put option trade for 3-28-2014

This next trade, entered just 36 seconds after the last one, went much better than the last. And it was a much better technical setup, with a much higher probability for success. You can probably see for yourself from the chart image above (again, taken at the time of entry) that we were trading on a retreat from its current highs. Highs which it has previously failed to breach several times already this day. And indeed this is exactly what happened again, with price pulling back fairly sharply from these levels shortly after we got into the trade for a solid ITM finish by expiry.

Oil Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option

Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry:
 18:00:46 / 18:30
Investment: $100.00
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1292.92 / 1293.95
Returns Received: $176.00
Profit/Loss: +$76.00 Profit

At this point in the day we found ourselves slightly down with a 1/1 win/loss split, and sorely tempted to make a couple more trades to improve those numbers. However, after about 20 minutes of “chart surfing” and still not seeing anything particularly promising we decided to just wait for the outcome of our still open, longer-term S&P500 trade made earlier. This trade was expiring at market close so if it went poorly it would be too late to do anything about it. But at this point when we looked in on it things were looking pretty good, with about 5 points of ITM “cushion”, and less than an hour remaining in the US trading day. So we felt pretty confident about the trade finishing well. We had also made the trade for a bit larger an investment than “normal” at $124 and some change, so the potential returns on the trade were $219 and some change. Enough to make sure we remained in profitable territory for the week.

s&p500 index put option trade for 3-28-2014

S&P500 Trade Summary – High/Low Put Option

Trade Outcome: ITM
Entry Time / Expiry:
 16:28 / 20:00
Investment: $124.52
Returns Offered: 76%
Entry Rate / Expiry Rate: 1292.92 / 1293.95
Returns Received: $219.16
Profit/Loss: +$94.64 Profit

daily investments history totals for 3-28-2014

Daily Investment Totals For 3/28/2014

Total Trades Entered: Three (3) Standard High/Low
Daily Trading Outcomes:
 Two (2) ITM + One (1) OTM
Total Investments: $324.52
Total Returns Received: $395.16
Total Daily Profit/Loss: +$70.64 Daily Profit
Daily ROI: +21.77% Daily ROI

$70 profit isn’t great considering we probably put in more than an hour of trading “work” today. It is, however, a heck of a lot better than a loss so we’re thankful for that at least. And it was enough to make it a profitable week overall, if not by much, so that’s good as well. There is one more trading day left this month, Monday the 31st, so we can’t put together the monthly trading roundup this weekend, but we will get out the weekly roundup for this week at least. So until next time folks, trade smart and be lucky!

Monday, 24th Trades | No Tuesday Trades | No Wednesday Trades | Thursday, 27th Trades